Weather Forecasting - The National Weather Service, Types Of Weather Forecasts, Long-range Forecasting, Numerical Weather Prediction
data conditions knowing future
Weather forecasting is the attempt by meteorologists to predict the state of the atmosphere at some future time and the weather conditions that may be expected. Weather forecasting is the single most important practical reason for the existence of meteorology as a science. It is obvious that knowing the future of the weather can be important for individuals and organizations. Accurate weather forecasts can tell a farmer when the best time to plant is; an airport control tower what information to send to planes that are landing and taking off; and residents of a coastal region when a hurricane might strike.
Humans have been looking for ways to forecast the weather for centuries. The Greek natural philosopher Theophrastus wrote a book, Book of Signs, in about 300
B.C. listing more than 200 ways of knowing when to expect rain, wind, fair conditions, and other kinds of weather.
Scientifically based weather forecasting was not possible until meteorologists were able to collect data about current weather conditions from a relatively widespread system of observing stations and organize that data in a timely fashion. By the 1930s these conditions had been met. Vilhelm and Jacob Bjerknes developed a weather station network in the 1920s that allowed for the collection of regional weather data. The weather data collected by the network could be transmitted nearly instantaneously by use of the telegraph, invented in the 1830s by Samuel F. B. Morse. The age of scientific forecasting, also referred to as synoptic forecasting, was under way.
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In the United States weather forecasting is the responsibility of the National Weather Service (NWS), a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the Department of Commerce. NWS maintains more than 400 field offices and observatories in all 50 states and overseas. The future modernized structure of the NWS will include 116 weather forecast offices (WFO) and 13 river…
The less one knows about the way the atmosphere works the simpler weather forecasting appears to be. For example if clouds appear in the sky and a light rain begins to fall one might predict that rain will continue throughout the day. This type of weather forecast is known as a persistent forecast. A persistent forecast assumes the weather over a particular geographic area simply will continue int…
The complexity of atmosphere conditions is reflected in the fact that none of the forecasting methods outlined above is dependable for more than a few days at best. This reality does not prevent meteorologists from attempting to make long-term forecasts. These forecasts might predict the weather a few weeks, a few months, or even a year in advance. One of the best known (although not necessarily t…
The term numerical weather prediction is something of a misnomer since all forms of forecasting make use of numerical data like temperature, atmospheric pressure, and humidity. More precisely numerical weather prediction refers to forecasts that are obtained by using complex mathematical calculations carried out with high-speed computers. Numerical weather prediction is based on mathematical model…
The answer is that no human can solve such a problem. The mathematics involved are too complex. The task is not too much for computer, however. Computers can perform a series of calculations in a few hours that would take a meteorologist his or her whole lifetime to finish. In numerical weather predicting meteorologists select a group of equations that describe the conditions of the atmosphere as …
Weather forecasters have long been the subject of jokes, probably as much today as they were in Theophrastus's time. One reason for this is that there is no standard measure of a "correct" weather forecast. Suppose that a forecaster predicts heavy rain for your area tomorrow. Does a rainfall of 1 in (2.5 cm) prove that prediction correct? Or a rainfall of 1.5 in (1 cm)? Or a r…
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